The road back was always going to be slower the road to the shutdown but there are troubling inconsistencies in how the road back is being managed by the States, Territories and New Zealand.

What is critical right now is that the businesses that were at the forefront of the shutdown, are at the forefront of the rebound.

And these are the SME hospitality, accommodation and tourism related businesses that bore the brunt of the initial impact. They are now being denied their “Blue Sky” opportunity to re-emerge progressively. Victoria has not allowed in-house dining and commercial overnight accommodation until at least 31 May 2020. Other States are maintaining 14-day quarantine policies, without a road map to their removal, as is the case with our Trans Tasman cousins!

The pent up demand for short-stay accommodation, local tourism, together with the upturn from those that routinely travel overseas has the ability to commence the rebound but not if the States are not working in unison. There needs to be a clear understanding of the critical commercial imperative to provide visibility to the public and to the operators of the road map so these industries can plan to get moving while continuing to observe sensible social distancing and other preventative protocols. 

Any small to medium enterprise on JobKeeper in the worst effected industries has a small, six-month window to operate without incurring wage costs if they manage their rosters and their employees duties effectively. That window is now down to four months in Victoria. Ten person dining should be viable for Businesses on JobKeeper including small scale accommodation businesses, caravan parks and many other similar venues as their wage bill should be $nil, while incremental costs will represent very minor additional costs, particularly if they have been maintaining some services. Comparing viability with pre-COVID cost structures is not that relevant on the roadway back. 

As we have already foreshadowed over two weeks ago, the cascading impact across the entire business community is now starting to become visible. Every business will be affected and needs to be prepared for the “Blue Sky” window of opportunity that will emerge for them while others will invariably descend into the black clouds of doom that are forming for a proportion of their competitors.

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